Conventional vs Hybrid Portfolio Backtested Performance

How would  have a portfolio of  just equity and bond funds performed vis-a-vis hybrid portfolio of (equity + Alternatives)?

First let’s see how the equities performed in the last 12 months. I will take the Index performance for large cap, mid cap and small rather than some mutual fund as it will give a better unbiased picture.

  • Stock only Portfolio Performance

I have taken 100 as a base to make it easy to comprehend

It shows that if someone started with 10 Lakh in small cap fund in Jan 2018 they would have 6 lakh left after 1.5 year.

Lot of people think about stocks in terms of volatility and Return but drawdown is one really important factor to consider. How many people can digest 40% loss in value of their portfolio. Though I am sure if they hold it for a long time they will eventually make money but it’s  easier said than done.

  • So we move on to our second portfolio which people generally hold : combination of debt and equity.Let’s say we hold 25% debt and 75% equity divided equally between large ,midcap and small cap .Now how will our return look like

So total portfolio return will look like:

In 1.5 year you achieved a 17% loss on capital or 1.7 lakh loss.

Points to consider

  • Lot of people invest through SIP and believe that they would be able to ride volatility but unless you have recently started a SIP it wont really help you in averaging.

I had written a blog post on this topic

http://randomdimes.com/2019/is-sip-better-than-lumpsum-investment/

To put it simply Let’s say you had accumulated 100 shares at  average cost of 1 rs  over 100 months.Now your total asset value is 100

If market drops by 50% you will buy 1 share at .5 rs your average cost = (.5*1 +1*100)/(101)=.995 also your total portfolio loss is 50 Rs regardless of the SIP.

  • Without going into any maths it is quite evident all the index are moving together which implies our losses and gain will move together ie. either we will make lot of money or lot of losses.

Alternate Assets Performance:

  • REIT performance from the time it was launched in April 2019 ,staggering 18% return in 4 months

  • My P2P portfolio performance

 

Let’s say average return on P2P is approx 15%

I will take average of my  Invoice Receivable average return is 12.5%

If I add all the alternate investment with stock portfolio then last 4 months the graph would look like:

It is clearly evident that correlation between stocks and REIT or stocks and P2P investing is very Low or -ve ( the graph are in opposite direction). If we combine the assets uniformly  we can get a portfolio which has lower drawdown and higher returns .Even with the stocks performing poorly this portfolio did not face any drawdown,.

So how to allocate weights to various assets.

There are two types of asset allocation : Strategic Asset Allocation and Tactical. 

  • Strategic asset allocation

It is your base level allocation which you follow most of the time.You can either construct it mathematically

The easiest mathematical ways to do it is  Mean Variance optimisation and Black Litterman  .

People do not need to actually to follow a rigorous methodology but based on their age and risk appetite they can allocate to stocks and bond and the rest to alternate.

eg: for a 30 year old 50% stocks 20% bonds 30% alternate is decent while for a 50 year old 30% stocks 35% bonds 35% alternate can be better.

Off course the individual risk aversion is paramount to create a strategic allocation

  • Tactical Asset Allocation

If someone believes market is efficient then there is no scope of tactical allocation as we expect all information is factored in the prices but we do invest in  mutual funds because we think that market are not perfect and there is scope to outperform it.

Tactical asset allocation is one way in which we can go overweight or underweight on market during certain times

Basically market returns are a a factor of Value and momentum to an extent. During phases when stocks are fundamentally undervalued we can overweight our equity portfolio while during times when market is in euphoria we can gradually start  reducing our allocation.Here I would like to add the primary aim is to reduce risk as we do not wish to get caught with a huge position in a stock bubble

The problem with conventional Bond and Equity portfolio is that there is a huge opportunity cost of not investing in equity 100% of the time as bond returns around 7.5% are too less to offset the missed chances of bull rally . ie. if you take out money out of equity and put in bond you get only 7.5% while you wait for market to correct and you miss lot of returns in the meantime.

Now our portfolio has stocks,bonds and alternates,how do we go about creating a tactical allocation

When we have alternate which provide almost same return as midcap stocks then we can always increase their allocation during an equity euphoria.

I prefer the PE and Rolling Returns  based approach as it is the simplest. These are not rules but just indicators.

Empirically it has been shown that market has given a higher average return when PE levels had been low and vice versa

For instance if Nifty PE has crossed 30 I would be wary of the market and would try to book some of the profit and transfer it to P2P, Invoice discounting ,debt etc  while if PE is below 20-22 I will gradually increase equity allocation.

The problem is sometimes market continues to rally during a growth stage and sometimes it  keeps falling. I am fine with that as my alternate are already giving a decent return and I don’t want to take the risk of a sharp equity fall during overvaluation phase

Other problem with PE based investing is that over a period Nifty PE has gone up due to changes in its composition, PE doesn’t factor in inflation etc but what we want is just to get an idea about market not some sacrosanct number.

eg : if Market goes to 9000 in next 3 months  we can increase our allocation while if it rushes to 13000 in next 3 months we can go overweight alternatives.

Conclusion: Backtesting a hybrid portfolio shows how a low correlated portfolio helps in reducing risk and can be an important tool in tactical asset allocation during a recession or a rally.

Footnotes:

I2I Referral Link

I2I Account Referral Link

(First Use the link to register then add the Code I2I50%DISCOUNT while paying to get 50% off)

Rupee Circle Referral Code- PIND145
Rupee Circle

LendenClub Referral Code – LDC11989
LendenClub

OMLP2P Referral Link

OMLP2P

FinancePeer

(Use Code MNJ6547)

Mail me to get Cashkumar Referral

For starting invoice discounting mail me or drop a message on 9967974993 or mail me at rohanrautela9@gmail.com

 

P2P Portfolio Analysis(July)

To enhance my portfolio diversification I have increased my investment in some of the platform which have been performing well and my initial investment had been low. viz OMLP2P  and FinancePeer.

I have also decided to not increase my investment in Lendenclub and cashkumar  for now  primarily because  auto invest is very slow in these 2 platforms and it’s a hassle to invest manually in these. I am using these platforms as liquidity buffer (replacement for Liquid Funds) as they have short maturity and I can use the EMI if I need cash in future

Portfolio Composition

Portfolio Changes:

  • My portfolio is more uniformly distributed now  among multiple platform compared to when I started
  • I have added fresh investments to FinancePeer and OMLP2P

 Portfolio Performance

:

Performance Analysis:

Key Points from this month’s performance are:

  • LendenClub: I had mentioned I am  cutting down my Insta Loan exposure ,slight increase in my portfolio yield can be attributed to it
  •  I2IFunding : Have decreased investment size per loan in D and E category to 2000 per borrower to diversify  optimally
  • RupeeCircle :Till now 1  delay that too within 30 days
  • FinancePeer : I am using the platform only for Education Loans which is going to add a new diversification to my overall portfolio. No defaults till now
  • OMLP2P : I am sticking mostly to  salaried People in OMLP2P. For the yield I am getting ,the credit worthiness of the borrowers is pretty impressive here.
  • Cashkumar: The yield has been fluctuating between 13-14%. The platform is decent but very tough to find borrowers even after auto invest which makes it good for only small investment

*some fluctuation in yield and NPA can be attributed to the date on which I calculate returns i.e sometime I receive EMI just after calculation, thus people should focus on the trend rather than look at individual numbers

Historical Default Pattern for each Platform:

I2IFunding: 3 defaults 90 plus days:

My Portfolio breakup : around 70% is in D category Government Loans 20% in E and 10% (B&C). On a hindsight I would have invested in C and B categories more  in the start rather than going for D category totally.

Although Municipal employees in D category have performed well in my portfolio

Below is the status of my delinquent loans

The absconded guy was from category F, I could have avoided that loan as the guy had made enquiries in 10 other places which is a red flag.

The 1st loan was from E and 3rd from D.

That’s why diversification is very important especially in high risk loans

OMLP2P : No Defaults 

My portfolio breakup:  75% of portfolio is in salaried(P2,P3 and P4) while 25% is high quality business loan(B2 and B3)

Interestingly in OML  we have even MBA candidate with 60K monthly salary in P3 Category giving 23-24% which is much higher ROI compared to a similar credit loan in I2I.

RupeeCircle: No Defaults

My Portfolio breakup: 50% D category 30% E Category 20% F

Range of ROI is 24-30%

RupeeCircle has some really High CIbil score borrowers(750 +) even though salary is low which implies that they have decent credit history but due to the nature of their job they do not have access to cheap credit from banks  which is a great opportunity for P2P investors!

FinancePeer: No Defaults

100% education Loans

ROI  is 20%

Till now the platform does not have any defaults in this category as the parents are guarantor of the loan and wilful defaulters would be very low.

(Need to keep in mind Financepeer does not charge any Fees so 20% in FInancepeer is equivalent to 22-23% in other platforms)

LendenClub: 12% Default

Portfolio Break up 35% in Insta , 65% in High Risk

Interestingly my Portfolio yield is 30% plus but due to Defaults the net yield is 15%. Yield will dip now as I am reducing Insta but NPA will also come down

Default break up: 75% of my defaults are in Insta Loan while rest in other category

 

 

Cashkumar: 1 Default

Defaulting guy had average monthly account balance less than 1000 .Repayment capacity of such borrowers will always be doubtful

P2P investment Pyramid:

Based on my experience I have created a structure for people to follow when they start investing in P2P .People should start from the base and then go up the pyramid

 

It implies people who are starting to invest or have lower capital to invest should first concentrate on the Loan categories and platforms which are at the bottom of the pyramid and invest lesser on the ones at top.

Eg: if you have 10Rs : Invest 6 in base  3 in middle and 1 in top.

When the investment amount grows you can increase the allocation for mid level

eg: if you have 10Rs : Invest 4 in base  4 in middle and 2 in top.

Logic: if some one is sufficiently diversified it doesn’t matter which category he focus more on as the expected payoff is same

ie. for 25% loan at 10% default you earn almost same as 20% loans with 5% NPA.

The reason for the structure is that though payoff of the total portfolio is deterministic the path of return is not uniform.

Let’s say we have 100 Loans , in a high risk category 10 loans will be bad but portfolio will give 25% ,while in low risk 5 will be bad but portfolio total return is same.

For someone who  starts to invest in 10 loan ,he can pick up 10 bad loans in first scenario  while in the other max bad loans he can pick is 5. This can  make his portfolio performance substantially even though for few months.

One factor which can further worsen it is that a new investor lack the experience to pick up good loans hence chances are higher that he will pick up bad loans. With experience he can improve the skills.

Once he has 100 loans it does not matter in  which category he invested more as the net payoff is similar.

To enable this kind of investment one can use small ticket size for high risk loans(say 2000) and larger ticket for safer loans(say 5000)

Invoice Discounting Performance:

I keep rolling my invoice discount investments. Currently I am invested In Flipkart and Amazon for average duration  40 Days

My current Portfolio yield and duration:

While selecting a company in Invoice discounting factors which I check:

  • Latest Quarterly report if available
  • Current Leverage and cashflow
  • Any adverse news in the last 3 months.
  • Financial strength of the vendor too ensure  in the scenario enterprise fail to honour receipt , the vendor is able to pay me .

Footnotes:

I2I Referral Link

I2I Account Referral Link

(First Use the link to register then add the Code I2I50%DISCOUNT while paying to get 50% off)

Rupee Circle Referral Code- PIND145
Rupee Circle

LendenClub Referral Code – LDC11989
LendenClub

OMLP2P Referral Link

OMLP2P

FinancePeer

(Use Code MNJ6547)

Mail me to get Cashkumar Referral

For starting invoice discounting mail me or drop a message on 9967974993 or mail me at rohanrautela9@gmail.com